As headlines focus on tariffs and domestic manufacturing efforts, the conversation has turned to reviving industry, rebuilding supply chains, and protecting jobs.
But we’re having the wrong conversation.
Tariffs aim to support a 1950s-style economy—one built on labor-intensive manufacturing and domestic supply chains. But the world that created that economy no longer exists. We should be planning for something far more transformative. The next 10 to 20 years will bring changes on par with the last 300 years. It’s a staggering rate of change.
In 1700, there were no automobiles, no electricity, no factory lines, no national banks, no stock markets as we know them. Most people farmed. The idea of a “job” in the modern sense didn’t exist. Nearly every system we rely on today—transportation, finance, healthcare, logistics, education—was the product of 300 years of compounding technology. Now, we’re about to run that same curve again—compressed into a single decade. And our systems aren’t ready.
This might sound dramatic—but when viewed on a macro scale, it’s inevitable.
Our economic playbooks were written for an era where labor was the primary input. Where industries scaled by hiring more people. Where public policy focused on full employment and slow, steady productivity growth.
That’s not the world we’re heading into.
Venture capital doesn’t operate on quarterly timelines. We place bets on what the world will look like a decade from now—and who’s already building toward it.
From that vantage point, a clear pattern emerges. Founders aren’t focused on restoring legacy systems or defending the status quo. They’re building around a different set of assumptions—where automation is the baseline, not the breakthrough. Where work is distributed, not centralized. And where digital systems increasingly operate without human mediation.
They’re building AI agents that can take on entire functions once considered too complex to automate. Vision systems that allow machines to perceive, interpret, and act in the physical world. And robotics platforms that operate in warehouses, farms, and construction sites—bridging software and hardware in real-world environments.
AI today helps us write emails, generate code, and summarize calls. But that’s just the starting point. Today it's replacing individual tasks and workflows. Soon, it will replace entire operational stacks. From support desks to strategic planning, AI is transitioning from assistant to operator. This isn’t speculative. Some of these products are in-market now. Many more will be within a year.
Over the next decade, we’ll see a profound shift in how white-collar work is executed. Functions long considered immune to automation will be rebuilt from the ground up. Meanwhile, robotics is reshaping the physical economy. Prices are falling. Capabilities are improving. What once required a $500K robot and a team of PhDs can now be done by a $50K system with off-the-shelf sensors and a trained foundation model. Factories, farms, fulfillment centers, construction sites, commercial kitchens—these are already being transformed by scalable, low-cost automation. We’re approaching a world where AI agents analyze and design, and machines build and ship.
The labor model that powered the last century—built on human scale—no longer applies.
Much of the current conversation assumes we can bring jobs back by reshoring manufacturing. That tariffs will protect workers, revive industry, restore the balance. But that vision doesn’t align with today’s reality.
Manufacturing may come back. But the jobs likely won’t—at least not in the form most people expect. A 1950s factory was bustling with workers on the line. A modern factory is quiet, dark, and filled with machines. Where once 5,000 people operated the floor, in the future perhaps 10 specialists will oversee automated systems.
Automation isn’t theoretical anymore—it’s practical, cheaper, and increasingly superior. We’re not heading back to the post-war 1950s economy. We’re entering a new system where labor is no longer the primary input. Where productivity scales without people. We don’t need a tariff strategy. We need a strategy for an economy where jobs are no longer the organizing principle.
If we want to talk policy, we should be talking about:
We need to focus on economic policy to best support the world we’re heading toward.
The economic engine we’ve relied on—one powered by full employment, career ladders, and steady wage growth—is winding down. The next economy won’t scale via adding people. It will scale by expanding capability—across systems, tools, and organizations. That means:
This reflects a fundamental shift in how value is created—and how quickly it can compound.
If we want to build a thriving future, we need to design around that shift. Because it’s already underway.
This transformation is already underway, but the planning isn’t keeping up. Our systems and frameworks are still rooted in a labor-first paradigm. But labor is no longer the constraint. Imagination is.
We can’t plan for 2035 using the mindset of 1950. We can’t build what’s next by trying to preserve what used to work. If we want a future that’s prosperous and widely shared, we need to design for it—intentionally, urgently, and with a longer view.
